greenthinkingfable

[Inquirer 2/13] Maniego-Posadas article on coal vs RE FIT cost considerations

2012-02-16T15:54:00.001-08:00

Pete Maniego, Chairman of the Philippine National Renewable Energy Board (NREB) and I co-authored an article on the cost considerations for coal vs. renewable energy feed-in-tariffs, in the 13 February 2012 issue of the Philippine Daily Inquirer.

Read it here.

DENNIS

[HK SCMP 2 Jan] Posadas oped on Typhoon Washi disaster

2012-01-02T21:54:00.000-08:00

Please checkout my opinion piece in the 2 January 2012 issue of the HK South China Morning Post on the not-so-funny comedy of errors that led to loss of life during the Typhoon Washi disaster.

You can go to the HK SCMP piece by clicking here. I will also post the entire article in the Greenthinkingfable FB page (see right side of this website for the link).

DENNIS

DZRH Balintataw radio play this January 2012

2011-12-22T20:35:00.000-08:00

After the Typhoon Sendong disaster in CDO and Iligan, I worked closely with the translator to finish the DZRH Balintataw climate change script in Pilipino. The radio script explains how carbon concentration in our atmosphere from fossil fuel use is causing an upward shift in temperatures and correspondingly increases water vapor in the atmosphere. This also increases wind and storm energy (storms are heat engines), and explains what we can do in terms of mitigation (e.g. renewables, energy conservation) and adaptation (e.g. reforestation, avoid settlements in flood plain zones, etc.).

I'm not used to writing in Pilipino, but this is my Christmas gift to society especially after Typhoon Sendong's aftermath. Hopefully it airs on DZRH AM Philippines this January 2010.

DENNIS

Speeding up evacuations in the age of climate change

2011-12-20T03:00:00.000-08:00

The Typhoon Sendong flashflood disaster which claimed the lives of (as I write this) almost a thousand people, was a comedy of errors that was not funny. However, one strong argument that can be made is that the system of telling the Mayor who then tells the Baranggay Captain who then tells the Kagawad to evacuate will not work in this age of climate change.

So adaptation does not mean repeating what does not work. It does mean however, that we use everything at our disposal to speed up evacuation. And what we have in large numbers in the Philippines are cellphones - around 80M divided up among several telcos across the Philippines 7,100 islands. Think of each cellphone as a possible siren and early warning device.

Now in times of emergency, the government has a constitutional right to take over congressional franchises if dictated by national interests. Would you say that there were those among the people sleeping in Iligan and CDO some people whose cellphones were turned on at that time? Not that we are blaming anyone here, but in hindsight, if we had rung nonstop all their cellphones and everyone around the country knew what it meant, what does that mean for us moving forward?

Cellphone towers experience a signal strength weakening (we engineers call it attenuation) when there is strong rainfall. If the telcos can use this as a rainfall metric, and also combine it with rain/wind instrumentation on their towers, and perhaps automatically go into Emergency Broadcast System mode (e.g. all cellphones in the area will keep ringing) then perhaps that can be an immediate community alert mechanism...

The telco know approximately who is in the area because their cellsite knows what cellphones are accessing it. So if Tower 12, 13, 14, etc. are located in strategic points that indicate dangerous rainfall levels, all cellphones in that area (regardless of telco provider) should and can be triggered to ring nonstop. If done in coordination with geohazard planners, they can determine which towers are indicative of possible flash floods.

Now I would wager that while some people turn off their cellphones at night, the ones who keep it will wonder why their cellphone keeps ringing nonstop. Actually if a public information campaign is done, they will immediately know what it is - an Emergency Broadcast Warning - and act fast.

But it has to be coupled with a preagreed safe place to run to. Climate adaptation will require our actions to be pre-agreed and done almost instinctively without time for reflection or hesitation.

The good thing about this plan is that the system is already capable of doing this. We do not need to add anything to the system to get everyone's cellphone in affected evacuation areas ringing nonstop. We already know what cellphone towers are adjacent to those evacuation areas - and so all phones currently accessing that tower can be made to ring.

Finally, the telcos won't say this publicly because of privacy concerns, but technically speaking they can triangulate a cellphone's location from the time of flight measurements of the signal vis a vis three cellsites. The accuracy will depend on the ability to measure the time difference of the signal arrival times on each of the three cellsites and the accuracy of the central clock used by all cellsites (may have to be an atomic clock to be accurate). I once read an Ericsson technical paper on this several years ago. It's not as accurate as GPS, but an accuracy of a few meters is possible.

Now if someone manages to construct a cellphone that will still work once submerged in mud/water, and if for some reason the bearer is located in an area able to transmit a signal, then you have the workings of a system able to track a missing person...

Think of an air raid or earthquake drill, not a slow turtle pace evacuation. When the siren (your cellphone sounds), head immediately without hesitation to your designated shelters. We are at war with runaway climate change and we must act in the appropriate manner.

Why does increased global temperatures result in increased rainfall?

2011-12-17T22:45:00.000-08:00

The recent typhoon (code named "Sendong") in the Southern Philippines island of Mindanao that caused a high number of deaths, injuries and displaced persons has made people ask why the rainfall volume has increased. This rainfall volume increase is a product of climate change.

The reports of the IPCC Working Groups approach around a thousand pages each, so it is difficult for laypersons to read them. Dr. Mike MacCracken, Chief Scientist at the Climate Institute and former Clinton administration Executive Director of the Office of the U.S. Global Change Program had a wonderful (and challenging to read) article in the June 2008 issue of the Journal of Air and Waste Management Association (JAWMA) where he explained this phenomenon.

The Clausius-Clapeyron equation says for every 1C temp increase, atmospheric water vapor increases by 7%. Since water vapor itself reflects back the heat and light from the surface that would normally be reflected back into space, in effect the additional downward heat and light causes more water vapor to arise from bodies of water. Thermal heat energy becomes trapped close to our surface (instead of being reflected back into space) and this feeds on itself causing more liquid water to change phase into water vapor.

This is known as water vapor feedback and is the cause of the increased rainfall from climate change.

The stronger heat differentials from warm and cold fronts also causes wind speeds to increase.

DENNIS

Durban COP17 extends Kyoto CDM to 2017 while new emissions treaty hoped for 2015

2011-12-11T01:35:00.000-08:00

A lifesaver has been thrown for climate mitigation projects from Durban COP17!
Read this NYT article here. It wasn't the new treaty hoped for at COP17, but at least an emissions pact is still alive.

The Kyoto Protocol, whose first period was set to expire in 2012 (next year), was extended until 2017 to give enough time for a new treaty to be worked out hopefully to take effect in 2015.

Initially, the E.U. - Least Developed Countries bloc - Small Island States bloc plus Brazil and Russia supported this. Then at the last minute, during the Sunday morning close of the Durban COP17, the U.S., China, India agreed to support it.

Any new treaty would have to be ratified by each country's respective Congress/Parliament. Which means this is still a long road to a treaty.

But at least it's a start.

DENNIS

Study finds largest jump in CO2 emissions in 2010

2011-12-04T16:53:00.000-08:00

According to a new NYTimes article, global CO2 emissions from fossil-fuels jumped by the largest amount on record last 2010.

Emissions rose by 5.9% in 2010, according to an analysis released by the Global Carbon Project, an international collaboration of scientists tracking carbon emissions. The group said the increase, a half-billion extra tons of carbon pumped into the air, was almost certainly the largest absolute jump in any year since the Industrial Revolution, and the largest percentage increase since 2003.

DENNIS

Smartest thing I've heard from COP17 Durban, South Africa so far

2011-11-29T18:04:00.000-08:00

This is the smartest thing I've heard so far from reports from COP17 in Durban, South Africa. Read the NYTimes/IHT report here.

[IHT/NYT 28 Nov on COP17] Andrew Light, a senior fellow specializing in international climate policy at the Center for American Progress in Washington, said that much of what needs to be done to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can be done outside of the U.N. framework.

“All the pledges made by the major emitters are sufficient to get us two-thirds of the reductions we need by 2020,” he said. “It...’s possible to get the final third with about $60 billion in additional funding, which is why we need to get this green climate fund going. I don’t expect Durban to resolve where that money is coming from, but I hope they can get the fund itself up and running. That’s the quiet but most important part of the meeting.”

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[HK SCMP 16 Nov] Posadas on IEA World Energy Outlook 2011 report

2011-11-15T16:12:00.000-08:00

My oped on the apparent disconnect between what IEA Chief Economist Dr. Fatih Birol and what some Asian energy ministers are saying (and hoping for) was published in the 16 Nov 2011 issue of the HK South China Morning Post.

Read it here.
Since it has subscriber access, you can also check out the entire article at our FB page.

DENNIS

IEA 2011 report: Every $1 not spent on clean energy now becomes $4.30 after 2020 (nine years from now)

2011-11-14T20:10:00.000-08:00

The International Energy Agency (IEA), the bible of the worldwide energy sector, recently released its 134 page World Energy Outlook 2011 report. See the IEA website here.

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According to IEA Chief Economist Dr. Fatih Birol, "as each year passes without clear signals to drive investment in clean energy, the 'lock-in' of high-carbon infrastructure is making it harder and more expensive to meet our energy security and climate goals. Delaying action is a false economy.

For every $1 of investment in cleaner technology that is avoided in the power sector before 2020, an additional $4.30 would need to be spent after 2020 (nine years from now) to compensate for the increased emissions."

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Contrast this with the "wait until renewables become cheaper" attitude of avoiding Feed-in-Tariffs and hoping for the best. Obviously these two schools of thought are not converging.

So it's our choice. We avoid spending the $1 now for clean energy, and wait nine years for that $1 to become $4.30.

Or we spend the $1 now.

[SG TODAY 8 Nov] I argue that the Singapore gov't should adopt a Feed-in-Tariff

2011-11-07T17:16:00.000-08:00

I wrote an oped urging the Singapore government to consider adopting the Feed-in-Tariff mechanism for renewable energy. It was published in TODAY, Singapore's 2nd largest newspaper this 8 November 2011, Tuesday.

Click here to read the TODAY oped.

DENNIS

How three Asian energy ministers view the Feed-in-Tariff

2011-11-02T00:09:00.000-07:00

It was an interesting discussion on the Feed-in-Tariff by three Asian energy ministers during the Singapore Energy Summit last 31 October, Monday. Read the report by Eco-Business here.

Key passages from the Eco-Business report:

Secretary Rene Almendras of the Philippines noted that experts from other parts of the world – some of which have negative experiences with feed-in tariffs – say the tariffs distort the energy market and should not be used. “I don’t think it’s a one size fits all,” he said, adding that different countries had unique needs that should be examined on a case-by-case basis.
[DENNIS NOTE: Secretary Almendras seems not inclined to implement a law that is already on the books, the Renewable Energy Act of 2008, something that RE investors have been waiting for since 2008]

Minister S. Iswaran of Singapore, a Republic that firmly follows a policy of not distorting its electricity prices, said that the reality is that the costs of many renewable energy sources are several times the price of eletricity from conventional sources.

“If we choose the path of subsidising consumption of these alternative energy sources, then really we are subsidising a more costly alternative in an environment when we need to look at the competing options available,” he added.

Instead, Minister Iswaran explained, Singapore supports research and development (R&D) to help bring down the costs of alternative energies so that they can stand up to the scrutiny of economic feasibility studies. [DENNIS NOTE: R&D is good and should continue, but we are talking apples and oranges here. R&D benefits will show up a few years from now. In the meantime, baseload shortages mean that countries need to decide now whether they will build new coal plants or new wind/solar plants. To the extent that technology can drop price points this will work in the long term, but to the extent that manufacturing can drop price points this will not work because manufacturing price point drops are driven by volume - and that is what we get out of the FiT - sales volume for RE equipment.]

Malaysia’s Minister Idris Jala countered that he was of the view that feed-in tariffs were good subsidies, as long as the end goal of the policy was grid parity. Grid parity is the point at which electricity from alternative energies are cost competitive with prevailing electricity rates.

“There are many projects in any country that require the government to assist by giving what is called a tipping point. If the government does not create the conditions for the tipping point, then I think the future of renewable is doomed,” he said. [DENNIS NOTE: I agree strongly with Minister Jala]

As with the Philippines, Malaysia is introducing a feed-in tariff to encourage renewable energy. Malaysia has the world’s third largest solar manufacturing industry, said Minister Jala, adding that the country cannot use its own products because it lacks the infrastructure.

Greenthinkingfable on AM radio this December

2011-10-26T17:26:00.000-07:00

Greenthinkingfable will air as a 30 minute radio play this December on DZRH 660kHz AM.

Send in your thoughts as to how Greenthinkingfable can be adapted for this format, and not lose the explanations of carbon cycle, feed-in-tariff, low carbon economy, etc. if it is done in the local language (Pilipino). I am currently writing the script first in English before translating into the local language.

I hope to do this also with other Asia-region radio stations if this is successful.

DENNIS

GT fable audio excerpt organizer debuts new stage play

2011-10-21T23:16:00.000-07:00

Click here if you haven't heard the MP3 audio excerpt of the Green Thinking fable, organized by my very talented cousin James Rubio, and done by some U.S. based actors.

For more of James's compositions, destined for greater heights on Broadway, click here.

James's latest stage play, for which he composed the music and score, is now running
at the Spirit of Broadway theatre in Norwich, CT.

DENNIS

17 Oct HK South China Morning Post oped on black carbon

2011-10-16T17:17:00.000-07:00

I wrote about black carbon reduction as a means of cheap climate mitigation, and at the same time a way to improve public health in urban cities, in the South China Morning Post 17 October issue.

Similar pieces will run in other Asian newspapers.

DENNIS

Why no RE investor wants to come to the Philippines

2011-10-10T22:38:00.000-07:00

The Philippine Daily Inquirer said in its Biz Buzz section last 10 October that the Renewable Energy sector is headed for the "kangkungan" (a local term for a vegetable plantation, indicating something is going nowhere). Abigail Ho wrote:

Indeed, the future of the FIT scheme looks bleak if the number of those opposed to it—and, more importantly, their large spheres of influence—was any indication. The Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Philippine Exporters Confederation and the Philippine Steelmakers Association are all against it, and so are the Trade Union Congress of the Philippines and the Associated Labor Unions.

Now if management and labor see eye to eye and even join hands to fight a common battle, who knows where the object of their opposition will end up? (The word “kangkungan” comes to mind.)

In the Manila Bulletin October 11 issue, Myrna Velasco writes:

"If the country, or the government for that matter, drifts into abandoning its own RE policy, stakeholders opine that such move would be tantamount to telling the whole world that: “while we have a fancy of passing laws, we are not really serious in implementing them. So next time, don’t even bet on placing your investments here!”"

No wonder no RE investor wants to come to the Philippines. Philippine low carbon economy you say? Who are you kidding? Low cost trumps low carbon. Talk about RE leadership is cheap but not backed up with action.

If you don't want to lead, get out of the way and shut up.

DENNIS

[YaleGlobal Apr 2010] Jeepney black carbon reduction project

2011-09-29T21:16:00.000-07:00

Here is a YaleGlobal article on a jeepney black carbon reduction project in the Philippines written by my climate mentor, John Topping Jr, President of the Washington, DC based Climate Institute and former EPA Staff Director for Air and Radiation under the Reagan administration.

The funding here is innovative. It utilizes something called a Voluntary Emission Reduction (VER) credit, something similar to the Carbon Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol (e.g. carbon credits) but this is a purely private market financial instrument.

This project was presented during the Cancun CoP16 conference in Mexico City last December 2010.

DENNIS

Japan approves RE law with FiT, as precondition for Naoto Kan's resignation

2011-08-30T18:16:00.000-07:00

Major news sources reported last 26 August that Japan's parliament passed its Renewable Energy law with a Feed-in-Tariff (FiT). See this Bloomberg news article.

Just to give an indication of how important this milestone is, former Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan had to make it a precondition for his resignation in light of the Fukushima nuclear disaster.

Japan's Parliament (Diet) passed the Renewable Energy/FiT law 23 August, then Kan resigned three days after on the 26th of August.

My fervent wish is that the Green Thinking fable and its accompanying newspaper opeds will play a part, no matter how small, in unleashing a wave of clean energy legislation across Asia.

DENNIS

China announces its RE Feed-in-Tariff

2011-08-10T18:16:00.000-07:00

China just announced its Feed-in-Tariff of 1 Yuan per kWh. This is a big boost in the arm for the renewable energy (RE) sector, after some countries like the Philippines delayed its own F-i-T implementation.

This is a sign that China is serious in its pursuit of RE leadership, not like some Asian countries that can only talk about RE leadership and pass laws, but do nothing else.

DENNIS

Green Thinking comic strip (for syndication)

2011-08-08T00:16:00.000-07:00

Shown here is a Green Thinking fable comic strip study done by myself in collaboration with a Filipino illustrator (Ace Polintan). We hope to see the entire comic strip series syndicated regionally, and in fact I am in talks with some Asian newspapers. It will basically reflect the Green Thinking fable story, but can be tailored for particular audiences (e.g. local language).

It is a bit challenging to simplify explaining concepts like Feed-in-Tariffs and related clean energy concepts, without losing the gist of the explanation.

DENNIS

[Inquirer 1 August] PCCI hits focus on renewable energy

2011-07-31T18:10:00.000-07:00

From an opposing view, the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) hit the focus on renewable energy, particularly the Feed-in-Tariff (FiT), in an article in the Inquirer this August 1.

Feed-in-Tariffs were first introduced in Spain and Germany. A FiT is a way to make investments in renewable energy more attractive and to spur a market, as without it, these technologies are quite expensive.

Without FiT, we are simply encouraging more coal baseload plants to be built. That is the significance of the loss of FiT.

In the same issue of the Inquirer, the Philippine Solar Power Alliance said that the government could lose over $650M in potential solar investments.

The Green Thinking fable can serve as a means to encourage a public debate on this important topic.

DENNIS

[Inquirer 28 July] German RE investors jittery about FiT delays

2011-07-27T21:38:00.000-07:00

It looks like some prospective German renewable energy (RE) investors in the Philippines will remain just that - prospective, unless the Philippines actually implements the Feed-in-Tariff provisions of the Renewable Energy Act of 2008.

Checkout this July 28 article in the Philippine Daily Inquirer.

DENNIS

Philippines DTI Secretary Greg Domingo opposed to F-i-T

2011-07-15T02:00:00.000-07:00

I'm not surprised when Philippine DTI Secretary Greg Domingo suddenly announced his position on the Feed-in-Tariff (F-i-T) in the Manila Bulletin. He is opposed to the F-i-T.

So I guess that puts this writer in the opposite camp as the good Secretary. I've made my position clear on this in several of my opeds, and of course, the Green Thinking fable itself.

The question is, what do we do with all those investors who flocked to the country after the Philippines passed the Renewable Energy Act of 2008. The F-i-T was the crown jewel of the RE Act, the defining thing that attracted the investors here in the first place. Even the International Finance Corporation, the private investment arm of the World Bank, said that this is causing jitters among RE investors here in an article in the Malaya newspaper.

I'm not surprised, but definitely I'm disappointed.

DENNIS

Feed-in-Tariffs under attack worldwide

2011-06-09T05:43:00.000-07:00

Well I guess this is what I have been worrying about for some time. That the rush to adopt renewable energy mandates and Feed-in-Tariffs after the 2008 oil price hike would be followed by "the morning after" feeling, in this case attacks on Feed-in-Tariffs.

Reuters reported this 9 June that the U.K. will cut Feed-in-Tariffs for large solar projects above 50KW.

This sends the wrong signal to investors and once again reinforces the fact that "going green" is not simply a matter of marketing and throwing "green" parties here and there. Rather it requires that we bite the bullet now and reap the results (e.g. cheaper renewable energy prices) in the future as a result of economies of scale.

But if everytime the price bogeyman rears its ugly head, we retreat, then that's not going to make all these spate of RE legislation worth the paper these are printed on.

DENNIS

[Singapore B-Times 1 June] Posadas on SunPower/Total deal

2011-06-01T04:57:00.000-07:00

My oped piece on the Total Petroleum acquisition of a 60% stake in the world's leading solar photovoltaic manufacturer SunPower was published in the 1 June 2011 opinion pages of the Singapore Business Times. Click here to read the piece in the SBT. For your convenience, the oped is also published below.

Note: the Singapore Business Times is a subscriber based website. You can read it after 6pm Singapore time and outside of normal business hours.

DENNIS

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Published June 1, 2011
Singapore Business Times

The move from black to green
By DENNIS POSADAS

RECENTLY, French oil company Total acquired a 60 per cent stake in the world's largest solar photovoltaic manufacturer, SunPower. According to Reuters, the deal includes an agreement that Total has an option to pursue the remaining shares, but will not exercise the option until 2014 at the earliest.

Shell still dabbles in solar power. Other oil giants have dabbled in algae oil production. British Petroleum (BP) in the past went into renewables in a big way, but they have scaled down their efforts, going back mostly to strengthen their traditional oil and gas business.

It looks like Total's foray into the solar business is a second major wave, to try to forge a direction forward for the petroleum industry, especially in a world that is increasingly looking for cleaner sources of energy.

In an interview for Forbes magazine, SunPower CEO Tom Werner said that from his company's point of view, the move was driven primarily by the need to access more capital, as their growth into grid level solar farms worldwide was being hampered by the need to provide letters of credit and other capital limitations.

Philippe Bossieu, head of Total's oil and gas business, said that '(Total is) responsible for supplying our partners throughout the planet with energy. What they ask us is to bring more and more energy and cleaner and cleaner energy. It will be part of our core business'.

Both Total and SunPower see the share of solar as currently small relative to the total worldwide energy mix, but with potential for massive growth, if enough capital is devoted for growth and R&D.

With the exception of BP, whose rallying cry used to be 'beyond petroleum', and the small-scale efforts of the other oil giants relative to their size, it looks like Total's foray into SunPower represents a break with the traditional thinking.

In fact, it was reported last 2009 that Shell had cut back on renewable investments in wind and solar, focusing its renewable efforts now on ethanol. BP likewise cut back on its solar business in 2009, citing the need to cut back on the cost of solar manufacturing, while noting that further expansion was possible.

While the long-term impact of this investment remains to be seen in terms of the solar industry's growth and that of SunPower, clearly this is a ray of hope to an industry that is being battered by low cost Chinese solar panels, the loss of federal guarantees in the US, and the hesitation of some countries to implement incentives like Feed-in-Tariffs in full as these tend to raise electricity prices.

With Total's warchest, hopefully SunPower and the solar industry can march forward to make sure solar photovoltaic conversion efficiencies are driven up and costs per solar panel are driven down, to hit the holy grail of the industry - that of grid parity (or equal cost levels) with fossil fuel sources.

Dennis Posadas is the author of Jump Start: A Technopreneurship Fable (Singapore: Pearson Prentice Hall, 2009) and the Green Thinking fable at http://greenthinkingfable.blogspot.com

Waste to Energy

2011-05-13T23:43:00.000-07:00

I'm currently involved in a venture to look at the setup of a 5MW waste-to-energy (WtE) facility somewhere in the Philippines. Typically the traditional way to do WtE has been incineration, but this is now banned in many parts of the world. The problem with burning (or incineration) is that it often produces carcinogens like dioxins and furans, and greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (particularly if fossil fuels like coal are burned).

There are now two general ways to do WtE (also called Energy from Waste in Europe). One is methane (CH4) capture. Methane is a byproduct of decaying biomass, such as those in waste piles like septic tanks, etc. Decaying biomass produces methane, which is a very potent greenhouse gas, and therefore capturing methane is a project that is eligible for Kyoto Protocol CDM (e.g. carbon credits). However in some (not all) instances, the amount of methane captured is quite small or does not justify the generation of electricity. So sometimes, the project just ends up burning the methane to be able to justify the credit without generating power.

The second, more technologically advanced way is called pyrolysis. This is basically subjecting the waste to high heat (around 1,500C and up), but in the absence of oxygen. Without oxygen (or very little of it), the waste does not incinerate or burn. Instead, it "dissociates" into a solid ash-like "char" that is inert (roughly 7%) and a mixture of gases called syngas (synthetic gas). This mixture is almost like air in terms of percentages (e.g. half is nitrogen, some carbon monoxide, other gases). However the difference is that there is roughly around 12% hydrogen which causes the syngas to burn cleanly and actually produce water vapor as part of the output.

The syngas is used to generate heat that runs a steam turbine to generate electricity.

The Germans in World War II actually used this technology but used it on coal. Instead of burning the coal, they "gasified" the coal (in this case the pyrolysis is called the Fisher-Tropsch process) and then liquified it into a synthetic gasoline to run their war effort.

A lot of climate change scientists are looking at pyrolysis as a way to unlock energy from materials like biomass, but at the same time lock the carbon for millenial time scales in the char. This is an exciting area of research involving various fields including energy, soil science, agriculture and waste management.

So now, almost seven decades later, the world has discovered that this technology can be used to safely and cleanly dispose of waste and at the same time generate clean electricity.

DENNIS

Total Oil acquires 60% of Sunpower

2011-05-02T01:12:00.000-07:00

The NY Times and the WSJ recently reported that the French oil company Total recently acquired 60% of the solar photovoltaic cell manufacturer Sunpower. Both Total and SunPower senior executives also gave a print interview to Forbes regarding the deal.

It is interesting because if you read the Green Thinking fable, there is a fictitious oil company called Eagle Oil that has a subsidiary that is into renewable energy. Talk about truth being stranger than fiction. Life does imitate art.

British Petroleum once tried to dabble with renewables (their motto used to be "Beyond Petroleum") but eventually downsized their involvement. Shell is also involved in solar power but has recently chosen to concentrate on ethanol. With this daring move, Total moves up the renewable energy chain. This may potentially represent another major wave of oil companies going in a big way towards renewables.

I am hopeful that this will lead to further growth for the solar photovoltaic sector, and growth particularly for Sunpower Philippines, which operates two facilities in Sta. Rosa, Laguna and Sto. Tomas, Batangas.

It will be interesting to see where this new development leads. Looks like black is turning green.

NOTE: According to this Reuters report, Total has an option to purchase the remaining 40% equity in SunPower after 2015, if certain conditions are met.

DENNIS

Michael Porter calls for a carbon tax

2011-04-30T00:42:00.000-07:00

Noted Harvard Business School professor and author Michael Porter co-authored an oped in the New York Times recently, echoing calls for a tax on carbon.

A tax on carbon, contrary to views that say it will weaken the economy, will actually strengthen it, says Porter.

Same argument I make in the Green Thinking fable.

DENNIS

NYT blog: Climate, communication and the "nerd loop"

2011-04-14T19:00:00.000-07:00

Interesting article in the New York Times dot earth blog on "Climate, Communication and the Nerd Loop."

Without taking away from the importance of ensuring good science (an absolute necessity), I've posted the link here because to a certain extent this is also the reason why I wrote the Green Thinking fable.

DENNIS

Don't throw a "F-i-T" with higher electricity prices

2011-04-12T21:28:00.000-07:00

As I've stated several times in this blog, and discussed in the Green Thinking fable, the way to move forward with renewable energy is not simply on the symbolic end (e.g. Earth Hour, etc.) but to actually understand what is going on.

This Manila Bulletin and Malaya articles (and this other one in the Australian) explains what needs to happen for some RE technologies to "get over" the chasm that Geoffrey Moore explains in his book Crossing the Chasm. Basically, for early adoption of these technologies to occur, someone has to pay the piper at first before the rest of us enjoy cheaper and better RE technologies. The Feed-in-Tariff incentives have to be passed on to someone - in particular the consumers. Again, this is similar to the PC, mobile and semiconductor technologies you enjoy now. These were expensive at first, but are now cheap.

But before you organize a revolt against the F-i-T, remember this. You are basically choosing between a variable cost energy source (e.g. fossil fuels), and renewable sources which are initially expensive, but once these get over the "hump," become cheaper because of economies of scale and because sunlight, wind, etc. are free.

The message of the Green Thinking fable is not to get caught up with symbolic green hype, but instead to understand and buy-in to the financial dynamics of RE early adoption, technology improvement, cost reduction and eventually diffusion to the masses. I'm not asking you to suddenly accept the doubling of your electric bill, but to understand the F-i-T concept and to the extent that you can, pay for this differential cost.

DENNIS

On coal and nuclear power

2011-04-08T21:35:00.000-07:00

If you read the Green Thinking fable carefully, I am careful not to take an ideological stance against particular power generation technologies - unless these are carbon emitters.

Coal for instance, if the carbon capture and sequestration technology (CCS) or improved technologies for mitigating carbon release like gasification and liquefaction can be widely utilized and it can be scientifically shown that the carbon emissions have been greatly reduced, then perhaps there is hope for it. While the coal industry has successfully filtered out trace emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, removing carbon dioxide is a tougher task - as it is a primary exhaust byproduct of burning coal.

Nuclear, while it has taken a strong beating from the Japan, Chernobyl and Three Mile Island disasters, continues to try new technologies like pebble bed reactors. But as I stated in the fable, which is true, politically it will be difficult to convince many societies to adopt it. In addition, I only mentioned nuclear in passing in the fable, because I feel this is something that should be discussed in the proper context once the dust has settled from the Fukushima nuclear disaster. I'll have to admit that this is beyond the scope of what I am trying to achieve with the Green Thinking fable.

As a technologist, I have a strong belief in the ability of scientists and engineers to develop better and improved technologies. But until the time we see better and safer technologies, I am still betting heavily on renewable energy. Hopefully current issues with cost, baseload and intermittent capabilities can be addressed.

DENNIS

Why I like writing fables

2011-04-04T00:16:00.000-07:00

You might wonder why I like writing using the fable genre.

In this day and age of 24-hour programming, free content on the Internet, and a crazy cacophony of information - whether vetted or not, sometimes the thing that is missing is the context.

Why would facts and bits of information matter to us? How do these impact our daily lives?

Scientists and academicians may wax poetically at new facts, but most laypersons put these new things aside - unless they have a direct bearing on their lives. That is why many people brush aside any good news about cancer research, unless they or someone they know suffers from it.

Context. That is something that stories can powerfully convey. Fables may be fictional stories, but if written and enveloped with facts, stories can be powerful vehicles for conveying context.

Now with that, let me caution the reader. As much as I would like to be objective about what I write, there will always be a certain bias that will filter through. I can't help it; I'm only human.

This is why, if you would like to dissect my fables, be my guest. Criticism and disagreement are par for the course, as far as I am concerned.

DENNIS

[Inquirer 24 Mar] Is Earth Hour just hype?

2011-03-24T02:32:00.000-07:00

Is Earth Hour just hype? Find out what I think in my latest Inquirer Science Blog post by clicking here.

DENNIS

Bloomberg BusinessWeek 2009 oped on Earth Hour

2011-03-23T01:11:00.000-07:00

Earth Hour is upon us again in a few days. I wrote an opinion piece for Bloomberg BusinessWeek last April 2009 on Earth Hour, which is actually still relevant now.

Click here to read the oped.

DENNIS

[Inquirer.net 13 Mar] when complex engineered systems like nuclear reactors fail

2011-03-12T21:28:00.000-08:00

I discuss some basic points on the failure of complex engineered systems, like nuclear reactors, in light of the recent earthquake related nuclear plant failures in Japan. Once upon a time, part of my responsibility in the semiconductor industry involved assessing the system reliability of various equipment, using statistical reliability tools.

Check it out in the Inquirer.net. Similarly, the Singapore Business Times also ran my oped last 17 March 2011.

DENNIS

American actors do Green Thinking audio excerpt

2011-01-30T02:37:00.000-08:00

Click here (or on the link on the right hand side of this blog) to listen to the Green Thinking audio excerpt.

Special thanks to the group of James Rubio, particularly to these U.S. based actors:

Narrator: Ron Sims
Professor Ruiz: Dan Zakarija
Daniel: Mike Clarke
Maria: Cheryl Orsini

Important note: you can play this as an audio streaming file, or download the MP3 file.

DENNIS

Bill McKibben "blurbs" the Green Thinking fable

2011-01-10T21:03:00.000-08:00

image (c) BillMcKibben.com

New York Times bestselling author Bill McKibben (see his website) "bills" himself as an author.educator.environmentalist. To read about Bill and what he stands for, click here.

Now he has blurbed the Green Thinking fable, and for that I would really like to thank him. Hopefully his support will help propel this fable to great distances!

To read Bill's Green Thinking fable blurb, check out the Green Thinking fable sampler.

DENNIS

Inquirer.net 7 Dec features Green Thinking fable

2010-12-07T14:27:00.000-08:00

The Inquirer.net, the Philippines' largest online newspaper, featured the Green Thinking fable in its 7 December 2010 issue.

Read the Inquirer.net article here.

DENNIS POSADAS

Celebrate your (slightly) higher electricity bill!

2010-12-04T23:35:00.000-08:00

This might seem a strange title for a blog post, to celebrate your higher electricity bill. But this in a way summarizes the argument I make in the Green Thinking fable (which if you haven't read it, can be read on the upper right portion of this blog).

The specific thing that will make electricity slightly more expensive but not too expensive and this is really a function of how skillful the regulators and the investors are in creating a balancing act of advancing the interests of renewable energy vs. not going overboard is the Feed-in-Tariff mechanism.

The Feed-in-Tariff is an allowed markup given to renewable energy producers that tells them that to be able to compete with cheap fossil energy, they can charge a slightly higher price...otherwise it won't make financial sense to go into renewable energy.

NOTE: since renewable energy often comprises a small percentage of the mix at the start, and grows by around 1-2% annually, consumers won't really see this impact until the percentage of RE grows relative to the total mix. However, the hope is by the time a big RE% is in effect, the technology and the market has advanced to the point that better, cheaper and faster products are then available...

To begin with, fossil fuel generated electricity is generally cheap (e.g. coal) because it is the de facto standard and widely used around the world. Unfortunately, burning fossil fuels generates CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Clean energy technologies like wind, solar and biomass are only beginning to take off, so like in the early days of the PC and semiconductor industry, they are still only taking off.

Now people will say that the technology price should drop first, but then it becomes a chicken and egg situation. If the market is always chasing after the cheapest source of electricity, then we can probably see more coal plants on the way. But if we give a premium for clean energy then that is the future we will get. With Feed-in-Tariffs, you are basically ensuring that the desired RE future does happen.

I won't go into the details of the technology adoption diffusion curve and Geoffrey Moore's Crossing the Chasm, but basically early adopters generally pay a higher price for technologies, which then signals to investors, entrepreneurs and technologists that there is a demand which stimulates further development and cheaper, faster and better products. We've all seen this in the semiconductor and PC industry. Of course, the desire is cheaper clean renewable energy in the future.

Obviously if you are only paying 10 cents per kWh for coal generated electricity and the price suddenly rises to 20 cents per kWh for renewable energy, then you will complain. But what I argue is that if the price only rises by 2-3 cents because of the skillful balance of the regulators and the investors, then don't insist on the 10 cent per kWh coal rate. There is of course some balance in this argument which I hope to attain.

Again, just to make my argument simple, I wrote the Green Thinking fable to explain this argument in its right context, because if taken out of context, it might confuse a lot of people.

So I hope you take time to read and to spread the Green Thinking fable to your friends and colleagues.

DENNIS

My previous clean energy opinions in Bloomberg BusinessWeek

2010-11-29T22:36:00.001-08:00

I've written several opinion pieces on clean energy for the Asia Insight column of Bloomberg BusinessWeek. Checkout a piece that I wrote that was selected by Bloomberg BusinessWeek editors for their 2009 series on the Copenhagen Climate Conference (CoP15). Other clean energy pieces I've done for Bloomberg BusinessWeek include those on wind energy, on solar, on Earth Hour, and on energy efficiency.

I've also written clean energy opinion pieces for the Singapore Straits Times, Singapore Business Times, Jakarta Post, BusinessWorld (column), Inquirer.net, Japan Today, and other regional papers.

Hope you enjoy these clean energy opinion pieces.

DENNIS POSADAS

Green Thinking fable excerpt on Youtube

2010-11-29T22:31:00.001-08:00

A good friend of mine, Mark Ruiz, is featured on Youtube reading an excerpt from my Green Thinking fable.

Checkout Mark as he reads the Green Thinking fable here. I hope you enjoy it.

DENNIS POSADAS

Read the Green Thinking fable on clean energy

2010-11-29T22:26:00.000-08:00

The Green Thinking fable is my attempt to explain the issues and problems surrounding the growth of the renewable/clean energy sector in a nonthreatening and layfriendly manner. By using the genre of the business fable, everyone - including housewives, students, teachers, and the general public, can understand how the clean/renewable energy sector works without becoming hindered by jargon and specialist language.

Over a thousand readers have read the Green Thinking fable during the first three weeks it was posted on Scribd. Join them and discover the magic of the Green Thinking fable.

To read the Green Thinking fable, click here.

Hope you enjoy it!

DENNIS POSADAS